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National Institute Economic Review
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NOWCASTING EURO AREA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN REAL TIME: THE ROLE OF CONFIDENCE INDICATORS

Domenico Giannone

ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR

Lucrezia Reichlin

London Business School and CEPR

Saverio Simonelli

University of Naples Federico II, EUI and CSEF, saverio.simonelli{at}unina.it

This paper assesses the role of qualitative surveys for the early estimation of GDP in the Euro Area in a model-based automated procedure which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real-time case study on the current conjuncture.

Key Words: Forecasting • factor model • real-time data • large data sets • survey

National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 210, No. 1, 90-97 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0027950109354413
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