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NOWCASTING IS NOT JUST CONTEMPORANEOUS FORECASTING

Department of Economics, Oxford University, jennifer.castle{at}nuffield.ox.ac.uk

Nicholas W.P. Fawcett

Department of Economics, Oxford University, nicholas.fawcett{at}lmh.ox.ac.uk

David F. Hendry

Department of Economics, Oxford University, david.hendry{at}nuffield.ox.ac.uk

We consider the reasons for nowcasting, the timing of information and sources thereof, especially contemporaneous data, which introduce different aspects compared to forecasting. We allow for the impact of location shifts inducing nowcast failure and nowcasting during breaks, probably with measurement errors. We also apply a variant of the nowcasting strategy proposed in Castle and Hendry (2009) to nowcast Euro Area GDP growth. Models of disaggregate monthly indicators are built by automatic methods, forecasting all variables that are released with a publication lag each period, then testing for shifts in available measures including survey data, switching to robust forecasts of missing series when breaks are detected.

Key Words: Nowcasting • contemporaneous information • Autometrics • location shifts • impulse-indicator saturation • robust nowcasts • Euro Area GDP growth

National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 210, No. 1, 71-89 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0027950109354412


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