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National Institute Economic Review
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ARCHITECTS AS NOWCASTERS OF HOUSING CONSTRUCTION

Mark J. Holmes

University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand, holmesmj{at}waikato.ac.nz

James Mitchell

NIESR, London, United Kingdom, j.mitchell{at}niesr.ac.uk

Brian Silverstone

University of Waikato and NZIER Research Associate, Hamilton, New Zealand, silver{at}mngt.waikato.ac.nz

For more than four decades, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has conducted a two-question, quarterly survey of architect forecasts of public and private sector construction expenditure. This qualitative survey is published one week after the end of each quarter and nine weeks ahead of the official quantitative data thereby giving architect opinion nowcasting status. This paper covers selected aspects of this unexplored series with particular reference to residential housing construction and the value-added information from architects as nowcasters. Specifically, we consider several qualitative-to-quantitative conversion methods, in-sample and out-of-sample performance, cyclical features and respondent dynamics. Although our work relates to architects - a sub-sector of the service industry - our results have a wider application to business survey questions using ordered qualitative responses.

Key Words: Nowcasting • real-time • architects • qualitative-to-quantitative conversion • business surveys • housing construction

National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 210, No. 1, 111-122 (2009)
DOI: 10.1177/0027950109354414
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