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Europe and its Fertility: From Low to Lowest Low

Institute of Quantitative Methods, Università Bocconi and IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), francesco.billari{at}uni-bocconi.it

This paper documents the fundamental changes in family formation that took place in Europe during the last two decades of the twentieth century, as well as some possible explanations for these changes. First, European youth have postponed key demographic events, and the latest-late pattern of transition to adulthood emerged in the South. Second, lowest-low fertility emerged during the 1990s in the same area, spreading quickly to Central and Eastern Europe. Policies and economic trends, long-standing cultural factors and ideational change interact in shaping change and differences. Macro-level factors in turn interact with micro-level ones to shape outcomes. The new demographic regime of Europe is thus likely to persist.

Key Words: Europe • transition to adulthood • latest-late • fertility • lowest-low

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