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The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices

Peter Isard

Douglas Laxton

Research Department, International Monetary Fund

The paper uses MULTIMOD to analyse the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, distinguishing between temporary, more persistent, and permanent shocks. It provides perspectives on several findings in the literature and the key role of monetary policy in influencing macroeconomic outcomes. Specific attention is paid to the channels through which oil price increases can pass through into core inflation, the implications of delayed policy responses, and the relative merits of leaning in different directions when the correct policy response is uncertain.

National Institute Economic Review, Vol. 179, No. 1, 87-103 (2002)
DOI: 10.1177/002795010217900111


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